Fibre rollout may be one-third less than Strategic Review

(analysis) NBN Co may rollout as little as 16% fibre to the premises under new principles released by the company. Their new guidelines reveal that within the fixed-line footprint, only new developments with over 100 premises or areas where fibre rollout are in advanced stages will likely receive Fibre to the Premises (FTTP). Remaining premises will be served by a mix of HFC and Fibre to the Node or Basement in the fixed-line footprint. This is despite the NBN Co Strategic Review initiated by the incoming Coalition government released 11 months ago suggested that at least 24% of premises in Australia will get FTTP.

Calculations conducted using myNBN.info’s extensive statistics reveal that only around 70 Fixed-line Service Areas (comparable to cities, see tables below) around the whole of Australia are “completed” or “in advanced stages” of the rollout (at least 50% of the rollout modules have at least begun build preparation). This accounts for roughly 1 million premises, or 8% at the end of the rollout in 2020. In addition, NBN Co expects another approximately 1 million premises in new developments (known as greenfields areas) with over 100 premises, accounting for a further 8%1. The total of 16% is roughly one third less than the original 24% suggested in the Strategic Review, or approximately 1 million premises around Australia.

The Government’s statement of expectations mandates the company to provide at least 25 mbps download speeds to all Australian premises with at least 90% of premises in the fixed-line footprint able to get 50 mbps or faster download speeds. NBN Co will only consider installing fibre in areas, not individual premises, where NBN Co finds the existing copper infrastructure to be incapable of delivering speeds required by the mandate. NBN Co is also investigating the possibility for installing fibre in limited “high-profit” areas as well as providing an end-user co-funded “fibre on demand” model.

The figure for greenfields fibre rollout may decrease further as the Government considers new rules that encourage property developers to use alternative fibre providers such as Opticomm.

In previous testimony, NBN Co’s CEO Bill Morrow had indicated that the Fibre to the Premises rollout mix may in fact be higher than that modelled in the Strategic Review:

Bill Morrow: In fact, the number that I recall is a bit higher than that in the early stage of the modelling that we are working on right now.

However, it appears that the modelling has reversed in terms of the number of FTTP premises. In less than 11 months, the multi-technology modelling conducted by NBN Co in their strategic review appears to have been proven to be inaccurate.

Existing premises: Fibre cities

by probability

Our guess,
FTTP probability
Approx premises %age
Definite 376,900 27%
Quite Likely 366,100 26%
Likely 292,800 21%
Uncertain 359,300 26%
Total 1,395,100 100%

by cities

Fixed-line Area ID State Number
of modules
commenced
%age
modules
commenced
Approx. #
of premises
in area
Our guess,
FTTP probability
Armidale 2ARM NSW 6 of 6 100% 13400 Definite
Blacktown 2BLK NSW 12 of 12 100% 29000 Definite
Campsie 2CAM NSW 3 of 7 43% 16600 Uncertain
Campbelltown 2CBT NSW 2 of 11 18% 27900 Uncertain
Coffs Harbour 2CFS NSW 7 of 7 100% 16000 Definite
Corrimal 2COR NSW 5 of 11 45% 26100 Uncertain
Dapto 2DAP NSW 6 of 6 100% 12100 Definite
Dubbo 2DBB NSW 5 of 7 71% 17900 Quite Likely
Gosford 2GOS NSW 7 of 8 88% 18300 Quite Likely
Homebush 2HOM NSW 5 of 6 83% 16000 Quite Likely
Kiama 2KIA NSW 3 of 3 100% 6500 Definite
Lidcombe 2LID NSW 8 of 8 100% 18000 Definite
Liverpool 2LIV NSW 6 of 12 50% 27800 Likely
Long Jetty 2LJT NSW 10 of 10 100% 24400 Definite
Maitland 2MAI NSW 4 of 11 36% 25600 Uncertain
Mayfield 2MYF NSW 2 of 6 33% 12800 Uncertain
Nowra-Bomaderry 2NWR NSW 3 of 6 50% 14400 Likely
Penrith 2PTH NSW 9 of 12 75% 22600 Quite Likely
Richmond 2RCH NSW 6 of 7 86% 12000 Quite Likely
Riverstone 2RIV NSW 4 of 4 100% 6200 Definite
Sawtell 2SAW NSW 4 of 4 100% 7500 Definite
Taree 2TEE NSW 6 of 6 100% 11500 Definite
Wollongong 2WLG NSW 7 of 10 70% 21200 Quite Likely
Bacchus Marsh 3BAC VIC 4 of 4 100% 7900 Definite
Ballarat 3BRA VIC 9 of 10 90% 22700 Quite Likely
Brunswick 3BRU VIC 8 of 8 100% 19200 Definite
Cranbourne 3CBN VIC 4 of 11 36% 24000 Uncertain
Creswick 3CRW VIC 1 of 1 100% 1200 Definite
Carlton 3CTN VIC 8 of 8 100% 15000 Definite
Footscray 3FSR VIC 8 of 12 67% 25000 Likely
Karingal 3KAL VIC 6 of 7 86% 15000 Quite Likely
Keysborough 3KEY VIC 4 of 8 50% 17300 Likely
Melton 3MLT VIC 7 of 11 64% 28000 Likely
Mount Eliza 3MTE VIC 1 of 5 20% 11300 Uncertain
Shepparton 3SHP VIC 6 of 10 60% 21100 Likely
South Morang 3SMR VIC 9 of 9 100% 20400 Definite
Tullamarine 3TMN VIC 6 of 7 86% 14900 Quite Likely
Werribee 3WER VIC 4 of 6 67% 19100 Likely
Acacia Ridge 4AAR QLD 6 of 12 50% 28100 Likely
Ascot 4ACO QLD 7 of 8 88% 16800 Quite Likely
Aspley 4APL QLD 10 of 12 83% 22300 Quite Likely
Ashmore 4ASH QLD 1 of 9 11% 20700 Uncertain
Bundamba 4BDB QLD 4 of 8 50% 15000 Likely
Cairns 4CAI QLD 6 of 6 100% 14500 Definite
Edge Hill 4EDG QLD 2 of 8 25% 20300 Uncertain
Goodna 4GDN QLD 8 of 8 100% 15700 Definite
Gulliver 4GUL QLD 7 of 7 100% 15600 Definite
Ipswich 4IPS QLD 3 of 9 33% 17400 Uncertain
Petrie 4KLG QLD 4 of 11 36% 25200 Uncertain
Mackay 4MKY QLD 7 of 7 100% 14600 Definite
Nudgee 4NDG QLD 5 of 6 83% 15400 Quite Likely
Townsville 4TNS QLD 9 of 12 75% 27500 Quite Likely
Toowoomba 4TOB QLD 12 of 12 100% 22200 Definite
Aldinga 5ALD SA 5 of 5 100% 7900 Definite
Modbury 5MOD SA 9 of 12 75% 25300 Quite Likely
Onkaparinga 5ONK SA 1 of 1 100% 1800 Definite
Prospect 5PRO SA 6 of 6 100% 13600 Definite
Port Elliot and Victor Harbor 5PTE SA 4 of 5 80% 9600 Quite Likely
Strathalbyn 5SBY SA 1 of 1 100% 3000 Definite
Seaford 5SFD SA 5 of 5 100% 9100 Definite
Applecross 6APP WA 4 of 11 36% 23600 Uncertain
Geraldton 6GLT WA 6 of 9 67% 23200 Likely
Mandurah 6MDR WA 5 of 10 50% 23000 Likely
Meadow Springs 6MSP WA 5 of 5 100% 9500 Definite
Pinjarra 6PNJ WA 2 of 2 100% 3400 Definite
South Perth 6SPT WA 5 of 8 63% 19000 Likely
Victoria Park 6VIC WA 7 of 10 70% 23800 Quite Likely
Bellerive 7BEV TAS 5 of 6 83% 12000 Quite Likely
Deloraine 7DEL TAS 1 of 1 100% 1600 Definite
George Town 7GEW TAS 2 of 2 100% 2600 Definite
Hobart 7HOB TAS 7 of 12 58% 25900 Likely
Kingston 7KIN TAS 5 of 5 100% 8300 Definite
Launceston 7LAU TAS 9 of 10 90% 20500 Quite Likely
Claremont 7NWT TAS 1 of 10 10% 24600 Uncertain
Scottsdale 7SCL TAS 1 of 1 100% 1100 Definite
South Launceston 7SHL TAS 2 of 7 29% 14100 Uncertain
Smithton 7SMO TAS 1 of 1 100% 1600 Definite
Somerset 7SOE TAS 1 of 1 100% 1500 Definite
Sorell 7SOR TAS 2 of 2 100% 2800 Definite
St Helens 7STH TAS 2 of 2 100% 2500 Definite
Triabunna 7TRA TAS 1 of 1 100% 500 Definite
Berrimah 8BRM NT 1 of 1 100% 1900 Definite
Casuarina 8CSU NT 6 of 6 100% 13300 Definite
Darwin 8DRW NT 7 of 8 88% 14400 Quite Likely
Nightcliff 8NTC NT 2 of 3 67% 5900 Likely
Bonner 9BON ACT 2 of 6 33% 5000 Uncertain
Crace 9CRC ACT 8 of 10 80% 17900 Quite Likely
Civic 9CVI ACT 2 of 10 20% 22200 Uncertain
Deakin 9DKI ACT 2 of 9 22% 20400 Uncertain
Queanbeyan 9QBN ACT 4 of 10 40% 21500 Uncertain

Kenneth Tsang

I'm the author of jxeeno™ blog and co-founder of HSCninja.com. I'm a bit of an #NBN and public transport geek. You can normally find me juggling work and my studies at UNSW where I'm currently completing a degree in Geospatial Engineering.